PREDICTION:
ROMNEY 44 GINGRICH 30 PAUL 13 SANTORUM 12
EXPLAINER:
ROMNEY 44
Romney emerges from Florida bruised nationally but arguably stronger within his party. The Gingrich scare, which is by no means over, has drawn establishment tongues and money to his side. Though neither Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio could afford to endorse Romney in their home states, their overall approval was implicit.
Somewhat surprising is Romney’s support among Latino primary voters, considering his hard-line positions on illegal immigration and border security. His team will be hoping that Hispanic Republicans can sell Romney’s appeal to their independent and Democratic compadres in November.
If I were advising Romney, I would not have him use the word “Gingrich” at all in the month of February. If he is to win his party’s nomination (I’d now put the likelihood at 65%), he should do it on Obama’s back, not Newt’s. This provides a natural transition from convention to campaign, and gives his staffers (just ask the New York Times) some much-needed time to finesse his economic message.
GINGRICH 30
Florida is the first of the GOP Primary states that operates outside regional or demographic microcosms. In many ways it is the first true test for political campaigns; you cannot win the state with bus tours and hand-shaking alone.
Ad buys, particularly from the Romney camp and his 100% completely unaffiliated super-PAC, have approached $20 million. And, much like in Iowa earlier this year, Gingrich seems unable to stay on message when being prodded.
Two sub-par debate performances (one with a no-audience-reaction stipulation, the other with an puzzlingly pro-Romney crowd) didn’t help Gingrich, and his suite of 1%-type attacks on Romney fell flat in a state that elected Rick Scott just over a year ago.
Gingrich, often noted for his vindictiveness and sense of ego, will remain in the mix through the convention, but likely under no illusion that he will be the Republican nominee for President. His goal now is probably to tear off chunks of Romney as substitutes for the fresh gashes in is own legacy.
With lots of southern states and states with proportional splitting of delegates remaining, yet another comeback is not impossible. After all, only 5% of delegates have so far been assigned.
PAUL 13
Again, Ron Paul could get 15% of the vote in wet-Tshirt contest he didn’t even enter. In a state that only allows registered Republicans to vote in GOP Primaries, his numbers drop slightly.
SANTORUM 12
Santorum spent much of his Florida campaign at home, caring for his young daughter who was hospitalized with pneumonia. Santorum, often criticized for bastardizing the phrase “family values,” should be commended for his decision to do so.
It is worth noting that (if my predictions hold) this is the first time that the sum of Santorum and Gingrich’s totals are below that of Romney. It seems this might be the right time for Santorum to bow out, as his loss of momentum can flow though narratives of choosing family over ambition. If I were him, I would do so without immediately endorsing either candidate.
On to the February vacuum.
