PREDICTION:
GINGRICH 37 ROMNEY 34 SANTORUM 14 PAUL 14 CAIN 1
EXPLAINER:
GINGRICH 37
Newt has momentum. At one point in December, he was carrying the state by over 10 points in a significantly more fractured field. Though he plummeted after a brutal Iowa effort, the propensity of conditional votes is there.
Obviously the resurfacing allegations from his ex-wife (adultery, requesting open marriage, etc.) do not help Gingrich in densely religious South Carolina. But his campaign’s efforts to diffuse the issue by turning it back on the press is smart strategy. Deep South paranoia about the media is in many ways as visceral as guns or gays.
ROMNEY 34
Mitt had a rough go here, but stayed on message though behemoth ad spending by Winning our Future, the SuperPAC that doesn’t coordinate with Gingrich. At all. But sketchiness on releasing his tax records dampened his support late, including a dismal response in last night’s CNN Debate.
The issue is a bit of a perfect storm for rival campaigns. On the one hand, it emphasizes one of his greatest weaknesses: the perception that he is a flesh-and-blood caricature of a 1%er. On the other, it nibbles away at his greatest strength: perceived electability. Voters are now worried that Romney is hiding something in his records (which, in all likelihood, he isn’t) that could sink him after he has already secured the nomination.
A quick note on this. A couple people have suggested to me that it was a mistake for Romney not to release his tax records right away. I disagree.
There is no doubt that Romney will have to release the records eventually, if not in these primaries then ahead of the general. If I were advising Romney, I would rather take the time to walk my candidate through every single line of those documents and make sure he can answer any media question the way I want him to before I release them. If it costs him ten points in South Carolina, fine. But trouble explaining salty portions of hastily released tax documents would have much more significant consequences now and in November.
SANTORUM 14
Santorum had a strong, scrappy performance in both debates and remains the only choice for true Evangelicals. Though Rick Perry endorsed Gingrich on his way out of the race yesterday, the last few weeks of the Texas governor’s campaign were focused on the religious base (social issues, Iran hawkishness, etc). As such, I would expect many Perry supporters to move to Santorum, probably splitting 50-50 Santorum-Gingrich. Looking forward, I would be surprised if Santorum has the money or support behind the curtain to last until Florida.
PAUL 14
Ron Paul could poll at 15% in a nursery. He has a solid following that doesn’t actually care who wins the GOP nomination. Paul will stay in the race until the end, and will not run as a third party candidate. There. I just saved you a drink or two.
CAIN 1
Stephen Colbert, whose ongoing meta-comedy art project has him jazz-handing though the politics of his home state, has suggested people use a write-in for Cain as a way to vote for his “candidacy.” I don’t actually expect he will break 1%, but we can all dream.
Speaking of drink wagers, I definitely recall betting a politico friend in October that Cain would be long gone by South Carolina. This better not count.
Should be a fun night.
