Sometimes the internet delivers, like when you are looking for an image of an elephant made of corn.
Alas, the big day is here! The fabled Iowa caucuses meet today in what constitutes the first delegate-designator of the Republican presidential nomination process. I will let Google explain the goofy (and, yes, often perplexing) caucus tradition in Iowa and other states. Results are likely around 8pm ET. Just be sure not to Google the word “Santorum” at work…
First, the predictions:
Santorum 34
Romney 24
Paul 18
Perry 8
Gingrich 7
Bachmann 7
Huntsman 2
Second, the presumptions:
Evangelicals retain the balance of power in Iowa. When Mike Huckabee won with 34% support in 2008 (eventual nominee John McCain was just under 15%, if memory serves), it was because his campaign gained momentum at just the right time (helped largely by the collapse of Fred Thompson, seen as the other potential Evangelical-approved candidate). Unfortunately for Huckabee, bad advice to stump in notoriously un-religious New Hampshire and take South Carolina for granted ensured that the symbolic victory would yield nothing but a weekly program on the Fox News Channel.
Santorum’s prospects follow a similar narrative, wherein the collapse of an inflated Gingrich campaign leaves a large, socially-conservative voting block without a candidate. The main difference between 2012 and 2008 is that today’s race has several candidates (Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, Bachmann) competing for the evangelical vote instead of the singular Huckabee. With each of those other campaigns sputtering (Perry still has a lot of money, mind you), Santorum seems the logical release valve.
In this sense, the at times startlingly socially conservative Santorum seems to have peaked at the right time. In a delegate-poor but momentum-rich state like Iowa, Evangelicals tend to be interested in sending a message to the rest of the country that christian ideals remain important. The specific candidate, often, is unimportant.
Moreso, the caucus process, wherein groups of people are lured to a specific candidate’s corner of a library or gymnasium and eventually head-counted, is significantly more conducive to the influence of momentum and crowd psychology than a traditional secret ballot.
In essence, come caucus time, most Evangelical voters won’t care about the specifics of Santorum’s position on, say, capital gains. They will simply look for the largest crowd among the Evangelical-acceptable candidates, and coalesce.
So what does a Santorum win mean, broadly? Well, nothing. If I were advising him, I would recommend he skip New Hampshire entirely and focus on South Carolina. Losing there would mean an even-earlier end to his campaign.
As for the other candidates, Iowa offers little. Paul remains burdened by a fanatical following with a cement ceiling. Perry and Bachmann peaked months early, and have never recovered from gaffe-filled campaigns. The same goes for Gingrich, who has been thrashed so vitriolically during Iowans’ commercial breaks that he actually seemed to decry post-Citizens United politics this week (!). Apparently there is also some elitist/socialist candidate named Jon Huntsman in the mix, though he will have to finish above 25% in New Hampshire to have enough money to persevere.
Which leaves Mitt Romney. The presumptive nominee, who rarely polls above 25% just about anywhere, was a victim of poor advice in framing the Iowa contest, and the result could hurt him nationally. In the fall, Romney’s camp had smartly avoided getting drawn into the Iowa fray, allowing them to downplay his predictable 25% tally (good for a tight 1st, 2nd, or 3rd depending on how fractured the Evangelical vote would end up) with an “our resources were directed elsewhere, we are looking ahead to other states” message.
But this week Romney found himself caught up in the seduction of the cornfields, even going so far as to promise a win this evening. The optics are now not good. Before, a win would have been seen as a huge upset and a loss a respectable showing. Now, anything short of 30% support will be difficult to spin positively.
