Much has been made of the purported impact of celebrated federal NDP leader Jack Layton’s death on the upcoming Ontario provincial election. After all, the past six weeks have been marked by widespread media discussion of core New Democratic values not seen since Ed Broadbent’s return to politics in 2004. Unlike 2004, however, these discussions have been diffused (perhaps appropriately) by orange-coloured glasses of respect and remembrance.
At a certain point, Ontario New Democrats were hoping that this momentum would translate into pickups similar to those of their federal counterparts in last May’s federal election.
The day before stations open, it is important to be blunt. Dalton McGuinty and Tim Hudak could spend the eve of the election jointly announcing a plan to increase the HST to 75% in order to pay for a new puppy-drowning initiative, and the NDP would still not form the next provincial government. It’s just not in the numbers.
If polling holds, the New Democrats seem unlikely to send more than 20 MPPs into the next legislature and, in light of their perceived collective momentum in the run-up to the campaign, many are likely to peg the totals as underwhelming.
What becomes clear, however, is that it should be the initial expectation, rather than the campaign, that accounts for any sense of dissapointment. After all, with Ontario lacking an untapped progressive hegemony to mirror Mr. Layton’s Quebec sweep and less than a dozen races where the NDP was slated to contend to steal seats, even the prospect of doubling—much less tripling—the current number of Dipper MPPs should have been seen as a longshot.
So, then, was the sense of pride and reinvigoration that Mr. Layton’s passing catalysed in moderate and left-leaning Canadians for naught? Absolutely not.
Over the course of Mr. Layton’s poignant week of rest, voters of all stripes were reminded of the universal core principles for which the New Democratic Party stands. The events and images conveyed a quiet compassion, conviction and yes, optimism for a more progressive Canada.
The unlikely hurdle presented by this idea-centric tone, however, is that in several key policy matters the Ontario NDP no longer best embodies these progressive ideals. The claim to ownership of the most aggressive environmental portfolio, for instance, has been stripped from Ontario Dippers by Mr. McGuinty, whose strides have been significant enough to earn the elusive endorsement of celebrated environmental policy-wonk David Suzuki.
Similarly, narratives of youth and engagement are no longer knockout blows for the NDP, particularly in the face of Mr. McGuinty and Mr. Hudak, who have so far exhibited the chops to connect with young voters. Mr. Hudak in particular has presented himself as the kind of bright and nimble communicator that young voters tend to entertain. By contrast, New Democratic leader Andrea Horwath—a gifted communicator in her own right—does not seem able to reach twenty-somethings with the ease of a Stephen Lewis, Bob Rae, or Mr. Layton.
Perhaps most challenging is that most of the defining issues over which Ontario New Democrats retain authority—social justice, housing, mass transit, and poverty—have taken a backseat to narratives of cost-cutting and fiscal restraint.
These conditions leave only three scenarios in play: a weak Progressive Conservative minority spurred by Liberals peeling off the flanks and splitting votes in key ridings; a strong Liberal minority secured by the strategic application of the “anything but Conservative” motto; and a tight Liberal majority cemented by progressive pragmatists grin-and-bearing a red ballot.
In each of these cases, the Ontario New Democrats will again find themselves confined to the familiar role of steadily drawing policy debates leftward in a legislature they do not control. Worth remembering, however, is that in a month defined by big ideas, renewed enthusiasm, and sober pride, the merits of this role should not be forgotten. Canada, after all, has a long story.
